#13 What is the solar tipping point?

What is the solar tipping point?

A new study published in Nature Communications suggests that solar power is on the verge of becoming the dominant global electricity source by 2050, and it may have already crossed an "irreversible tipping point."

The study utilized an energy-simulation model, incorporating data from 70 global regions and forecasting the deployment of 22 different energy technologies until 2060.

Remarkably, in 72% of the simulations, solar power constituted the majority of global power generation by 2050.

The main driving factors behind this solar surge is its decreasing cost.

The levelized cost of solar-generated electricity currently ranges from $42 to $48 per megawatt, in contrast to the $74 per megawatt for coal.

According to Jenny Chase, a lead solar analyst at BloombergNEF, these costs should continue to fall as cumulative solar power module production increases.

Challenges to the Solar Transition

The study's authors identify four barriers that could slow down the solar transition:

Grid resilience

"Dark doldrums", periods where wind speeds and solar irradiation levels are both low, pose a risk to the resilience of renewable-based electricity grids. 

Battery limitations can also make it difficult for renewables-based electricity grids to handle these dark doldrums.

The study suggests that governments invest in other renewable energy sources like wind and hydro-power to deal with these risks.

The availability of finance to fund the creation of solar infrastructure

The vast majority of current investment in solar research and capacity has occurred in high-income countries and China. Without state-led foreign investment, it is unclear when or if capital will move to build out solar-power capacity in poorer areas like Africa.

The study's authors note: “Equity investors and financial lenders apply high-risk premiums in perceived risky regional contexts, thus increasing the cost of capital for renewable projects."

As a result, "a key challenge for global solar deployment lies in the mismatch between high investment needs (see the chart below for modelled investments needs) and finance flows mobilised in developing countries.”

Supply Chains

A solar-based electricity grid will be "metal and mineral-intensive". Experts predict that demand for minerals like lithium, copper, and tellurium will expand dramatically in the coming decades.

According to the study: “As countries accelerate their decarbonization efforts, renewable technologies are projected to make up 40% of total mineral demand for copper and rare earth elements, between 60 and 70% for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90% for lithium by 2040.”

Geopolitical and environmental factors will shape the extraction and production of these and other minerals, potentially raising costs for renewable power in a way that could slow or reverse the green transition.

Resistance from declining industries like fossil fuels

Fossil fuel companies may use political and economic strategies to slow the pace of the green transition if they are unable to find a way to profit from it themselves.

The growth of renewable energy would certainly create millions of new jobs globally, but the decline of the fossil fuel industry could also lead to the loss of an estimated 13 million jobs worldwide.

Key Lessons

The study’s authors wrote: “A tipping point towards solar dominance however does not solve climate change mitigation or achieve climate targets, as it does not ensure a zero-carbon energy system. Solar-dominated electricity systems could become locked into configurations that are neither resilient nor sustainable with a reliance on fossil fuel for dispatchable power…

[However,] the carbon price required to achieve cost break-even between renewables and fossil fuels may soon be zero. Instead, it is policies that address the above barriers—grid resilience, access to finance, management of material supply chains, and political opposition—that may enable success in reaching net-zero energy emissions.”

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Yours,
Dan